This week’s matchup at the Yanitelli Center isn’t just another non-conference game on the calendar. It’s a fascinating clash between analytics, betting markets, and on-court identity.
Saint Peter’s hosts Dartmouth on November 29 at 2:00 p.m. EST. The numbers tell a story of a slight favorite, an underdog with real upset potential, and a game that could turn into a sneaky good watch for college hoops fans in Jersey City and beyond.
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Saint Peter’s vs. Dartmouth: Breaking Down the Betting Line
On paper, Saint Peter’s comes in as a modest favorite, laying 1.5 points at home with a total set at 143.5. That line shows respect for the Peacocks’ defense and home court, but also nods to Dartmouth’s ability to hang around in tight contests.
The game streams on ESPN+, making it easy for local fans to tune in and catch the nuances that don’t show up in a simple box score. Beneath that modest spread, there’s a more complicated story told by predictive models and past performance trends.
Models Like Dartmouth… But Just Barely
While sportsbooks favor Saint Peter’s, at least one winning team model gives Dartmouth a 55.6% chance to win outright. Another spread-focused model leans the same way, suggesting Dartmouth has about a 51% chance to cover the +1.5.
That’s almost a coin flip. The market might be overvaluing Saint Peter’s home edge or missing something in Dartmouth’s underlying numbers. For bettors, that’s where things get interesting.
Against the Spread: Past Trends vs. Current Form
Recent against-the-spread (ATS) history adds more texture, but neither side has a crystal-clear story.
Dartmouth’s Split Personality at the Window
Over their last 25 games, Dartmouth has been quietly reliable:
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- They’ve covered the spread in 16 of those 25 contests.
- They’ve cashed on the moneyline 11 times in that span.
This season, though, the Big Green are a frustrating 0–3 ATS and 0–3 on the moneyline. Historically, they’ve outperformed expectations, but so far this season, that hasn’t shown up for backers. Is this just a blip, or is Dartmouth regressing?
Saint Peter’s: Modest Edge, Modest Returns
Saint Peter’s sits at 2–3 against the spread this season. That doesn’t scream dominance, but they’re roughly performing to expectations.
There’s been a slight positive return on investment betting the under in their games, reflecting their defensive profile and sometimes grinding style of play. That tendency toward lower-scoring affairs gets tested against a Dartmouth team with a high free throw rate and offensive issues that might either bog the game down or create wild swings, depending on how whistle-happy the officiating crew is.
Defense, Efficiency, and the Battle of Styles
This matchup gets even more compelling when you break down what each team does well—and where they stumble.
Saint Peter’s: Locking Down the Perimeter
Defensively, Saint Peter’s focuses on limiting the three-ball. Last season, the Peacocks allowed just 5.8 made threes per game, ranking among the best in the country.
That’s no fluke; it comes from closeouts, disciplined rotations, and a willingness to make opponents beat them inside the arc. In an era where the three-pointer can swing a spread or blow up an under, that kind of perimeter discipline is pure gold.
If they can again hold Dartmouth to low-volume or low-efficiency shooting from deep, it tilts the game back toward the home favorite.
Dartmouth: Turnovers, Efficiency, and Free Throws
Dartmouth’s offensive profile is a bit more complicated. They struggle with turnovers and have a lower effective field goal percentage than the Ivy League average.
That means empty possessions and tough shot profiles—two things that kill upset bids. On the bright side, Dartmouth boasts the highest free throw rate in the Ivy League at 31%, just above the league average.
They get to the line frequently, and in a close game with a tight spread, living at the foul stripe can make all the difference. If they can protect the ball just enough and take advantage of that free throw edge, maybe the models’ tilt toward Dartmouth isn’t so wild after all.
What It All Means for Fans—and for Jersey City
Put it all together, and you get a matchup with the favorite playing at home. The underdog actually has a real shot at an upset, at least on paper.
The total sits right in that range where pace, whistles, and late-game strategy start to matter a whole lot. This is one of those nuanced, high-leverage games that rewards viewers who notice more than just win-loss records.
For Jersey City hoops fans, it’s yet another reminder of how much high-level basketball rolls through the Yanitelli Center every season. Whether you’re a local alum, a visiting fan figuring out where to stay in Jersey City, or someone just wandering through the neighborhood for the first time, these games feel woven into the city’s whole vibe—sports, culture, community, all tangled up together.
Before tipoff, you’ll probably catch visiting fans wandering the waterfront, swapping ideas on things to do in Jersey City after the game, or maybe comparing the scene here to other city districts they’ve seen. Some folks will pull up lists of Jersey City hotels close to campus, while others map out the PATH, light rail, or highways, plotting out getting to Jersey City for the next big one.
On November 29 at 2:00 p.m., it all comes together at Yanitelli. The line’s tight, the models can’t agree, and it feels like little things—turnovers, free throws, a couple of threes—could swing the whole thing. For Saint Peter’s, it’s a shot to back up the oddsmakers. For Dartmouth, a chance to make the computers look smart. And for Jersey City, it’s just another afternoon when college basketball’s spotlight lands right here, even if only for a bit.
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Here is the source article for this story: Dartmouth vs Saint Peter’s Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today
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